Coal share in energy mix seen doubling to 41.6% by 2040

By Myrna M. Velasco –  June 15, 2017, 10:01 PM

From Manila Bulletin

The share of coal technology in the country’s energy mix is anticipated reaching more than double to 41.6 percent by year 2040 – the culminating period of the energy planning horizon of the Duterte administration.

Essentially, that will be a two-fold growth from the 2016 level at 20.5 percent as presented by the Department of Energy.

Together with oil – on forecast share of 32.2 percent by year 2040 – these two fossil fuel-based technologies will still dominate the country’s energy mix within that planning milieu for an aggregate share of 73.8 percent. It would be a reduction though for oil’s share from 35.5 percent as of 2016.

Oil generally serves both the requirements of the power generation and transport sectors – with the latter having a heftier share of the pie.

Within that calculated timeframe, the other technologies that will comprise the energy mix would be: Biomass with 9.0-percent share; geothermal with 7.1-percent share; natural gas at 4.1-percent; hydro at 1.9-percent share; biofuels at 1.0-percent; solar and wind at less than 1.0-percent; and other technologies with 3.1-percent share.

“Fossil fuel-based sources will continue to get the lion’s share in the total supply mix,” Energy Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi has admitted, noting that by year 2040, the country’s total energy requirement “is seen to reach the level of 134.2 million tons of oil equivalent.” For the power sector, capacity is seen ramped up to 43,765MW within the planning timeframe from a leaner 21,424MW in installed capacity last year.

Cusi explained that the resulting energy mix underpinning the economic path of the Duterte administration is anchored on the “70-20-10 ratio” of baseload to mid-merit and peaking capacities that the department had crunched for the investment numbers cast primarily for the power sector.

“It is the ideal energy mix targeted by the administration as part of its inclusive growth agenda in the energy sector,” the energy chief opined.

For the “other technologies” factored in into the plan, he noted that this provides opportunity for the country to explore on further development options. In fact, one of the sectors being given aggressive push for the long-term is nuclear power option.

For renewable energy, the signal is possible slowdown in investments – but that will all depend on how investors would take on a business model that will no longer be supported by feed-in-tariffs (FIT) or subsidies.

Cusi said RE capacity will be increased to 15,000MW by year 2040 from its 2010 level of 5,000MW from both emerging and conventional technologies – but this projection will still be subject to further study by the National Renewable Energy Board.